The Modern Warm Duration Delimited

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Visitor essay by David Archibald

This current post went over completion of the Modern Warm Duration and the year that international cooling started. That post was influenced by a remark to a post on WUWT 6 to 8 years ago to the impact that environment is managed by the Sun’s magnetic flux– no have to stress over much else. The remark appeared to come from a warmer researcher– they are well moneyed, have lots of time on their hands, some are wise and idle interest would get a couple of checking out exactly what controls environment. The outcomes would not be released obviously. To paraphrase Mussolini, whatever within the story, absolutely nothing outside the story, absolutely nothing versus the story. If the Sun’s magnetic flux controls environment, you do not need to stress over exactly what goes on under the hood– the impact of EUV on the NAO, the GCR flux, the F107 flux, other flux apart from the magnetic flux.

A remark by Bellman on that current post influenced me to process the aa Index information a bit more. This is exactly what the aa Index appears like from the start of recording in 1868:


Figure 1: aa Index 1868– 2018

Completion of the Modern Warm Duration stays December 2008 which is the month of the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum. The start of the Modern Warm Duration is now September 1933 which is the month of the Solar Cycle 16/17 minimum. That is the real start of the Modern Warm Duration since of exactly what appears from this chart:


Figure 2: Cumulative aa Index versus long term average 1868– 2017

It appears from Figure 2 that 1933 marked the turnaround in the pattern of the cumulative aa Index outlined versus its average. The Sun was running a lot hotter from 1933.

That analysis is supported by the longer term Open Solar Flux information set by Lockwood:


Figure 3: Open Solar Flux 1676– 2011

The Maunder Minimum, the Dalton Minimum and the 1970 s cooling duration appear from Figure 3. The lows in Lockwood’s flux throughout the Modern Warm Duration stayed greater than the average of the duration from the Dalton Minimum that preceded it. As soon as once again, outlining up the cumulative information of this series makes the break in pattern obvious:


Figure 4: Cumulative Open Solar Flux 1676– 2011

Verification that 1933 is the start of the Modern Warm Duration originates from the weather action, beginning with glaciers:


Figure 5: Curves revealing the variations of glacier termini

Figure 5 is from page 15 of Ahlmann’s 1953 report to the American Geographical Society entitled Glacier Variations and Weather Changes Glaciers in Sweden, Norway and Iceland began pulling away a lot quicker from about1933 So did glaciers on the opposite side of the world:


Figure 6: Glacier length South Island of New Zealand

Figure 6 reveals that 3 of the 4 glaciers on New Zealand’s South Island began pulling away about1933 If a great deal of glaciers began pulling away around 1933 that must appear in the rate of water level modification. Therefore it is:


Figure 7: Global Water Level 1700– 2002

Figure 7 reveals that water level was efficiently flat from around 1900 to 1933 then removed from1933 Now that the Modern Warm Duration is over, glaciers ought to have stopped pulling away and ought to now be expanding. There is proof for that beginning with the Greenland Ice Sheet:


Figure 8: Accumulated Surface Area Mass Balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet

The blue line is the 2016– 2017 season which was at the upper bound of build-up from 1981 to2010 The Greenland Ice Sheet is back to gaining weight which is coming out of the oceans. Figure 9 programs where the weight went on, all 544 billion tonnes of it:


Figure 9: Map of built up anomaly given that September 1, 2016.

The readouts remain in the blue– Greenland, on balance, is now a story of ice build-up. Other weather proof for completion of the Modern Warm Duration is the variety of cold temperature level records embeded in the United State and Europe in early 2018, consisting of sharks freezing to death.

David Archibald’s newest book is American Gripen: The Option to the F-35 Headache





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