It started with a meme—a meme of a Shiba Inu. The meme spread to the farthest corners of the internet. It made people laugh. It made people happy.
On Dec 6, 2013, the meme became something more than a meme.
It became Dogecoin.
Almost immediately after its initial release, a community had rallied behind the new cryptocurrency. They raised over $55,000 for the Jamaican bobsled team to participate in the 2014 Winter Olympics.
Since then, the community has grown, and the price of DOGE has skyrocketed. Of course, it’s still worth much less than $0.01, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
After all, it is Elon Musk’s favorite cryptocurrency:
— Dogecoin (@dogecoin) April 2, 2019
There’s a reason for the coins popularity and long-term appeal. In this article, we examine these reasons and attempt to predict future prices for the cryptocurrency.
But first, let’s take a look at our most recent price analysis of DOGE/USD:
Regular Price Predictions of Dogecoin (DOGE)
On Apr 4, the price of Doge reached a high of $0.004. It has been decreasing since.
At the time of writing, the price is not following any visible trading structure. However, the closest support area is found near $0.0024. We believe the price will decrease and reach this area.
To read our full Apr 24 DOGE/USD and DOGE/BTC price analysis and predictions, click on the green button below:
Dogecoin Fundamental Analysis
There are three primary ways to value an asset:
- Use-Value is based on what an asset can be used for.
- Exchange-Value is essentially the price at which the asset can be bought or sold at a certain point in time.
- Sign-value includes what the asset signifies beyond itself.
Dogecoin is over six years old and remains one a popular cryptocurrency despite a relatively low market cap and price per coin.
The reason Dogecoin is able to maintain relevance lies its ability to display a competitive advantage in each of these three categories of valuation.
Most cryptocurrencies have the same intended use-value: to be used as currencies. This means that they are designed to be used as a means of exchange in peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions.
There are many types of P2P transactions. One of these is tipping. Originally, Dogecoin was used a
Another similar use is fundraising wherein a community of individuals donate funds together for a common purpose.
In January 2014—less than two months after Dogecoin was released—Dogesled was launched. Its purpose was to raise funds for equipment for the Jamaican bobsled team to participate in the 2014 Sochi Olympics.
The fundraiser was successful. Over $50,000 of dogecoins were raised and successfully converted into fiat dollars. Other fundraisers have followed in the years since.
This first fundraiser, however, is the most important because it illustrated that a so-called “joke internet-currency” could be used for real-world purposes. Furthermore, Dogesled provided Dogecoin with an opportunity to display its use-value very early on in the coin’s life.
Low Price, High Exchange-Value
The highest recorded price ever reached by Dogecoin—on HitBTC was $0.018288 on Jan 8, 2018. It is, however, quite rare for DOGE to exceed $0.01.
Such a low price per coin might seem to correlate with a poor exchange-value. After all, Bitcoin just broke $5000 while many other cryptocurrencies are trading well above $0.01.
Such low values may signify a poor exchange value; however, the exchange value of a currency is not solely derived by its conversation-rate into a fiat currency like the dollar.
The exchange-value of a currency is determined by many factors including
- The ease by which exchanges can take place with the currency
- The versatility of the currency
- Resistance to inflation
- Integration into a micro-economy
Given these matrices, Dogecoin has displayed a consistently high exchange-value since its birth.
It has been used for fundraising, tipping across a variety of social media platforms, and within a variety of diverse industries including retail, e-commerce, pornography, gambling, and many others.
Furthermore, with an indefinitely large supply of coins to be mined, Dogecoin displays resistance to inflation. Bitcoin, on the contrary, has a finite supply of coins. Once all bitcoins are mined, the demand for the cryptocurrency could exceed supply.
Prices could skyrocket.
While this might benefit investors, it impedes the usage of Bitcoin as an actual currency by those who do not have the money to purchase bitcoins. If the demand for Bitcoins reaches a certain threshold, even satoshis could become an impractical means of exchange.
In other words, a Bitcoin worth tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars may become too expensive for anything except investing.
Dogecoin’s supply, however, can grow to continue exceeding demand. This can keep the price low even as market cap increases.
In the long term, Bitcoin’s adoption might be hindered by a finite supply of exceptionally expensive assets. Dogecoin, however, may theoretically be better posed for long-term adoption with an indefinitely large supply and relatively small price.
Bitcoin may find use as an investment tool within a microeconomy of investors while Dogecoin may continually be integrated into an ever-expanding network of diverse microeconomies.
Dogecoin = Humor
Sign-value may be important than use and exchange. It adds to both. Furthermore, it exceeds them by drawing people’s attention not to the asset itself but to something else.
All cryptocurrencies generally carry basic sign-values. They can signify decentralization, resistance to banking infrastructure and financial institutions, anarchist and anarcho-capitalist ideas, investment opportunities, new financial systems, freedom, a “get rich quick” credos, and may other things.
Much of the sign-values are political, social, or economic.
Dogecoin is different. It is the comic relief to all the social and political bickering and financial investing.
DOGE began as joke currency. It was branded with humor in mind, and thus Dogecoin continues to signify humor. It is the coin that brings laughter and smiles rather than political disagreements or boring financial jargon.
Bitcoin, Litecoin, and other cryptocurrencies lack this comeptitive advantage.
Whether the sign if revolutionary or economic, cryptocurrencies and their communities often seem to take themselves too seriously. Dogecoin does the opposite, and as long as it succeeds as a joke it will probably maintain long-term use-, exchange-, and sign-value.
In short, Dogecoin has various fundamental advantages over its competitors. This does not mean that prices will always, but it does suggest that the adoption of DOGE in various sectors of society appears likely throughout the long-term.
Dogecoin Technical Analysis
On Aug 10, 2014, Dogecoin (DOGE) made a low of $0.00007. A rapid increase commenced. It lasted for several days.
A long and steady downtrend followed until around mid-2015. Prices gradually increased until Jan 30, 2017 when gains accelerated.
Dogecoin experienced a dip in mid-2017 before another rapid price spike commenced. On Jan 7, 2018, DOGE/USD reached its highest recorded value.
Since that time, the price has followed a downtrend despite several spikes.
The most recent spike occurred at the beginning of April 2019. The highs reached so far, however, have not been able to initiate another upward trend.
During the last five years, there have been several significant uptrends. Each was followed by a subsequently significant downtrend. We have noticed that these upward moves vary in the amount of volatility and the timeframe they occur in.
However, we believe we have noticed a pattern:
The price creates a swing low. After a short period, the price makes a rapid upward move. This is then followed by a slower decrease. The decrease ends when the price reaches the original low. Afterwards, a long uptrend begins.
The time-frames for two significant upward moves which share these characteristics are shown in the table below:
|Timeframes For Movement||Low (Date Experienced)||High (Date Experienced)||Low (Date Experienced)|
|August 10, 2014 – May 7, 2015||$0.00007 (Aug 10, 2014)||$0.000486 (Sep 26, 2014)||$0.000068 (May 7, 2015)|
|Dec 7, 2018 – Feb 6, 2019||$0.0019 (Dec 7, 2018)||$0.0031 (Dec 17, 2018)||$0.00177 (Feb 6, 2019)|
If we are correct, the movements succeeding the Feb 6, 2019 low should mirror those after the May, 2015 low.
However, this means that our analysis is designed to do two things:
- Define the current pattern we believe to be developing
- Apply the pattern to test for future price levels
We acknowledge that our price predictions may be inaccurate. This would signify that the patterns we’ve defined are not valid. However, if our price predictions prove accurate, it would mean that we’ve possibly isolated a valid pattern for gauging future price levels.
Of course, to know if we are right, we will first have to make the predictions and assess their accuracy when the time comes.
To begin, we seek to isolate similarities between these upward trends within the technical indicators. To begin, we examine the similarly low relative strength index (RSI) ratings during each low.
The price of DOGE on Hitbtc is analyzed at three-day intervals from Jul 2014 to Apr 2019 alongside RSI in order to figure out where our current position is relative to the prior upward moves:
To better visualize large price fluctuations, logarithmic charts are going to be used in this analysis. Below, we list the dates and RSI values isolated on the chart above:
- An RSI of 27 was recorded on Aug 8, 2014, 48 days before the high of Sep 25. An RSI of 28 was recorded on May 4, 2015, 221 days after the same high.
- An RSI of 26 was recorded on Dec 4, 2018, 14 days before the high of Dec 17. An RSI of 27 was recorded on Feb 3, 2019, 52 days after the same high.
RSIs between 26 and 28 have been recorded before and after a swing high is reached. Furthermore, the time periods between the dates in which the low RSI value is reached and the swing high are very similar in both cases.
While this may not be true in all cases, these findings suggest that RSI may create similarly low levels under 30 both before and after the initiation of a significant uptrend.
To determine what prices might be reached, we first determine the time tables during which the patterns might unfold. We do this by examining the times of two upward moves.
The price made a low of $0.00007 on Aug 10, 2014. It began a rapid upward move which took it to a high of $0.00048 on Sep 26, 2014. Afterward, a downtrend followed. Price made another low of $0.000068 on May 7, 2015.
It took 46 days for the price to move from the first low to the high, and 224 days from the high to drop to the second low.
Furthermore, the price made a low of $0.00193 on Dec 7, 2018. It began a rapid upward move which took it to a high of $0.0031 on Dec 17, 2018.
Afterward, a downtrend followed. Price made another low of $0.0017 on Feb 6, 2019.
It took 10 days for the price to move from the first low to the high, and 51 days to drop to the second low.
Comparing the length of these movements allows us to generate ratios that may help us in determining future prices and when they will be reached.
Measuring from the first low, the time it took for the price to reach the high was 46 and 10 days respectively. This gives us a ratio of 4.6 (46/10).
Measuring from the high, the time it took for the price to reach the second low was 224 and 51 days respectively. This gives us a ratio of 4.39 (224/51).
The average of these two ratios is 4.495. For the sake of convenience, we are going to use the number 4.5 on the rest of the analysis,
We are going to make the assumption that movements in the 2014 upward move take 4.5 times longer to complete than those in the current one.
Rate of Change
The price made a low of $0.00007 on Aug 10, 2014. It began a rapid upward move which took it to a high of $0.00048 on Sep 26, 2014. This is an increase of 572%
The price made a low of $0.00193 on Dec 7, 2018. It began a rapid upward move which took it to a high of $0.0031 on Dec 17, 2018. This is an increase of 57%
Dividing the rate of increase gives us a rate of 10 (572/57)
Therefore, we are going to make the assumption that movements in the 2014 upward move are 10 times larger than those in the 2019 move.
Dogecoin Price Prediction 2019
In order to figure out the price at the end of 2019, will use the 4.5 rate of time and the 10 rate of price movement and apply to the date in the 2014 upward move that corresponds to Dec 31, 2019.
On Aug 17, 2018, 1470 days after the $0.00007 low, the price opened at $0.0022. Measuring from the low, this is a 3049% rate of increase.
Therefore by applying the 10 ratio for price movement, we will use a 300% increase from the $0.00193 low on Dec 7, 2019. This gives us a price of around $0.0077 on Dec 31, 2019.
However, before this date is reached, the price should make an all time high of $0.055 on Sep 9, 2019.
The low on Dec 7, 2018, which precedes the recent upward move, is reached 1584 days after the Aug 10, 2014 low, which preceded the 2014 upward move.
Using the time and price ratios respectively, we get a price of $0.0064 on Jan 22, 2020. If the price follows the pattern laid out, this should be the final low before the price creates a different trading pattern.
DOGE Price Prediction 2020
In order to figure out the price at the end of 2020, will use the 4.5 rate of time and the 10 rate of price movement and apply to the date in the 2014 upward move corresponds to Dec 31, 2020.
However, the date corresponds to a future date. Furthermore, it corresponds to a date after the projected pattern has already finished. After the projection is finished, it is likely that the price will not repeat the same movement again.
However, for the sake of the analysis, we are going to make this prediction assuming that after the price completes the projected pattern, it will start another movement which is identical to the ones started on Aug 2014 and Dec 2018.
Therefore, the Jan 22, 2020 final low found in the previous section will be treated as the beginning of the fourth upward move.
On Oct 25, 2018, 1539 days after the $0.00007 low, the price opened at $0.00419. Measuring from the low, this is a 5855% rate of increase.
Therefore, by applying the 10 ratio for price movement, we will use a 58% increase from the $0.0063 projected low on Jan 22, 2020. This gives us a price of around $0.0103 on Dec 31, 2020.
However, before this date is reached, the price should make an all-time high of $0.185 on Oct 27, 2020.
Summary of Analysis
There are several similarities between the first 2017 upward move and the current one in 2019.
- Very similar RSI levels are generated at the low prior to the upward move.
- Very similar RSI levels are generated at the low after the upward move.
- Relatively similar time periods from the low to the high and vice versa.
The following predictions are made with the assumption that price will follow the pattern laid out in the previous correction and on the time tables we defined:
- The price should be trading around $0.0077 on Dec 31, 2019.
- The price should make an all time high of $0.185 on Oct 27, 2020.
- The price should be trading around $0.0103 on Dec 31, 2020.
Until these prices are validated, the patterns we define cannot be considered accurate indicators of future prices. Validation of these prices, however, would also validate the accuracy of the pattern we have isolated. At the end of 2019, we will return to these predictions to assess whether the pattern appears to be holding true or not.
Dogecoin Price Prediction Five Years
Forecasting the long-term price of a cryptocurrency that is extremely volatile is a tricky endeavor.
Therefore, we attempted to visualize an average rate of increase from 2014 till now. The rate is visualized in the graph as the green arrow.
It first acted as support on Aug 2014 and Jan 2015, before price finally broke down.
Afterwards, it acted as resistance on Jun 2014, Jan 2015 and Apr 2016, before the price broke out.
After this, the line again acted as support when the price dropped on Sep 2017 and Feb 2019.
However, as is visible in the graph, the price has been subject to significant fluctuations over the years.
In order to account for them, we drew parallel lines above and below our green line, corresponding with the lowest and highest prices.
Therefore, we believe that the average price in 2025 will be between $0.15 and $0.05 (channel between green and red lines)
However, fluctuations in price can be expected to reach as high as $0.5 (black line) and as low as $0.01 (blue line)
While the prices we have isolated may only be reached if the patterns we defined are true, we expect Dogecoin to remain relevant for many years to come. As long as it provides qualitative advantages over competitors, a low price tag may help rather than impede adoption of the cryptocurrency into various microeconomies.
Do you think Dogecoin will continue to gain adoption in the years to come? Let us know your thoughts about Dogecoin in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.