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BTC/USD Price Prediction: 04/11/19 Will Bitcoin Fight or Breakdown?

At Bittabi, we offer regular price analyses and predictions of the most popular and relevant cryptoassets. In our April 10 analysis of Bitcoin (BTC), we predicted that the price could increase in the short-term, but would eventually break down. Later that day, the price increased to touch the resistance line of the channel we defined, but then fell to the support line. To learn more, read our latest analysis below:

On Apr 3, the price of BTC reached a high of $5345. A sharp decrease brought it down to $4778 on Apr 4.

Bitcoin (BTC) Prices: Apr 2 – Apr 11

An uptrend followed. Price broke the Apr 3 high on Apr 10.  However, price has since decreased to around $5200.

Will Bitcoin resume its uptrend or break down as we predicted in our last analysis?

Let’s find out:

Bitcoin (BTC): Trends and Highlights For April 11

  • BTC/USD has been trading inside an ascending channel since Apr 3.
  • Bitcoin is trading very close to the support line of the channel.
  • Bearish divergence is developing in the RSI and the MACD.
  • There is resistance near $5350 and support near $4800.

A Look at the Current Trading Pattern

The price of BTC/USD is analyzed at one-hour intervals from Apr 2 to Apr 11 to determine Bitcoin’s current trading pattern.

On Apr 2, the price made an hourly low of $4653.93. A sharp increase ensued soon after. This was followed by a gradual decrease. The price has made several higher lows during this period.

Tracing these lows gives us an ascending support line:

On Apr 4, Bitcoin made an hourly high of $5074.63. Several market cycles have been completed. The price has made successively higher highs.

Tracing these highs gives us an ascending resistance line.

The resistance and support lines combine to create an ascending channel:

It is likely that the price will increase at the rate predicted by the channel until a decisive move occurs. In order to predict the direction of the movement, a look at technical indicators is required.

Technical Indicators

To better assess future price fluctuations, we incorporate technical indicators into the analysis. We begin with the relative strength index and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

The relative strength index (RSI) is an indicator which calculates the size of the changes in price in order to determine oversold or overbought conditions in the market.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages (long and short-term) and the price. It is used to measure the strength of a move. T
Combining MACD and RSI bullish/bearish divergence with support/resistance essentially predicts price fluctuations. They are shown alongside Bitcoin’s current trading pattern below:

On Apr 3, the price made a high of $5345. It reached another high of $5466 on Apr 10.

Similarly, the RSI and the MACD made the first high on Apr 3. However, they have proceeded to generate lower values.

This is known as bearish divergence and often precedes price decreases.

The divergence is occurring in medium-term timeframes, is very significant in value, and is occurring in both indicators. Using these indicators, it is likely that the price will eventually break down from the ascending channel.

Reversal Areas

We now incorporate support and resistance areas to determine the actual possible future price levels.

Support and resistance areas are created when the price revisits the same level several times. They can be used to find likely areas of reversal if a breakdown occurs.
These areas are traced in the graph below:

The closest support area is found near $4800. This area is below the channel and could only be reached in the event of a breakdown.

The closest resistance area is found near $5350. It is below the resistance line of the channel. If the price moves above this area, it could again reach the resistance line.

Conclusion and Summary

Based on this analysis, the price of BTC is likely to break down from the channel. While it is possible that it will increase in the short term, we believe it will eventually break down in the longer term.

Interested in 2019, 2020, and 5 year Bitcoin price predictions? Click on the green button below


Do you think BTC will keep increasing or breakdown?  Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.

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Written by Ravi


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